Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes Detroit Lions the strongest Week 5 survivor pick at 76.6% to win (on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, -8.5). New England Patriots is next at 76.6%. The public's favorite is Cincinnati Bengals, carrying 29.9% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Dallas Cowboys wins 64.5% of the time but is picked by only 4.7% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- Detroit Lions — 76.6% win, @ Arizona Cardinals -8.5
- New England Patriots — 76.6% win, vs Las Vegas Raiders -8.5
- Cincinnati Bengals — 70.5% win, @ Miami Dolphins -6
- Dallas Cowboys — 64.5% win, vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
- Baltimore Ravens — 64.5% win, @ Atlanta Falcons -4.5
Most picked by the public
- Cincinnati Bengals — 29.9% of entries
- New England Patriots — 26.8% of entries
- Detroit Lions — 9.8% of entries
Contrarian value
- Dallas Cowboys — 64.5% win, only 4.7% picked
- Baltimore Ravens — 64.5% win, only 3.6% picked
- Seattle Seahawks — 64.5% win, only 0.2% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | @ Arizona Cardinals | -8.5 | 76.6% | 75.7% | 9.8% |
| New England Patriots | vs Las Vegas Raiders | -8.5 | 76.6% | 75.4% | 26.8% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | @ Miami Dolphins | -6 | 70.5% | 71.9% | 29.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 | 64.5% | 64.2% | 4.7% |
| Baltimore Ravens | @ Atlanta Falcons | -4.5 | 64.5% | 68.3% | 3.6% |
| Seattle Seahawks | vs San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 | 64.5% | 63% | 0.2% |
| Houston Texans | @ Tennessee Titans | -3.5 | 62.2% | 64.2% | 8% |
| Los Angeles Rams | vs Buffalo Bills | -3 | 60.4% | 55.5% | 0.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | vs Chicago Bears | -3 | 60% | 58% | 0.6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | vs Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 56.3% | 53% | 0.6% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | vs Indianapolis Colts | -2.5 | 56.3% | 52.8% | 0.7% |
| New York Jets | vs Cleveland Browns | -2.5 | 54.3% | 53.1% | 1.9% |
| Washington Commanders | vs New York Giants | -2.5 | 54.3% | 52.1% | 0.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.2% | 6.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | @ New Orleans Saints | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.2% | 1.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | vs Philadelphia Eagles | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.8% | 0.3% |
| New Orleans Saints | vs Minnesota Vikings | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.8% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | @ New York Jets | +2.5 | 45.7% | 46.9% | 1.5% |
| New York Giants | @ Washington Commanders | +2.5 | 45.7% | 47.9% | 0.1% |
| Denver Broncos | @ Los Angeles Chargers | +2.5 | 43.7% | 47% | 0.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | +2.5 | 43.7% | 47.2% | 0.1% |
| Chicago Bears | @ Green Bay Packers | +3 | 40% | 42% | 0.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | @ Los Angeles Rams | +3 | 39.6% | 44.5% | 0.6% |
| Tennessee Titans | vs Houston Texans | +3.5 | 37.8% | 35.8% | 0.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Dallas Cowboys | +3.5 | 35.5% | 35.8% | 0.5% |
| Atlanta Falcons | vs Baltimore Ravens | +4.5 | 35.5% | 31.7% | 0.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | @ Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 | 35.5% | 37% | 0% |
| Miami Dolphins | vs Cincinnati Bengals | +6 | 29.5% | 28.1% | 0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | vs Detroit Lions | +8.5 | 23.4% | 24.3% | 0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | @ New England Patriots | +8.5 | 23.4% | 24.6% | 0% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.