Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes Chicago Bears the strongest Week 4 survivor pick at 78.2% to win (at home against the New York Jets, -8.5). Baltimore Ravens is next at 76.6%. The public agrees: Chicago Bears carries 30.2% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Kansas City Chiefs wins 68.5% of the time but is picked by only 3.6% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- Chicago Bears — 78.2% win, vs New York Jets -8.5
- Baltimore Ravens — 76.6% win, vs Tennessee Titans -8.5
- Minnesota Vikings — 76.6% win, vs Miami Dolphins -7.5
- New York Giants — 73.4% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -7
- Kansas City Chiefs — 68.5% win, @ Las Vegas Raiders -5.5
Most picked by the public
- Chicago Bears — 30.2% of entries
- Baltimore Ravens — 15.3% of entries
- Pittsburgh Steelers — 15.3% of entries
Contrarian value
- Kansas City Chiefs — 68.5% win, only 3.6% picked
- Seattle Seahawks — 60.9% win, only 0.7% picked
- Buffalo Bills — 60% win, only 1.4% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | vs New York Jets | -8.5 | 78.2% | 74.9% | 30.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | vs Tennessee Titans | -8.5 | 76.6% | 74.1% | 15.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | vs Miami Dolphins | -7.5 | 76.6% | 72.4% | 14.5% |
| New York Giants | vs Arizona Cardinals | -7 | 73.4% | 74.7% | 10% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | @ Las Vegas Raiders | -5.5 | 68.5% | 69.7% | 3.6% |
| Seattle Seahawks | vs Los Angeles Chargers | -3 | 60.9% | 58.2% | 0.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | vs New England Patriots | -3 | 60% | 55.4% | 1.4% |
| Detroit Lions | @ Carolina Panthers | -3 | 59.3% | 58.3% | 1.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | vs Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 56.3% | 52.7% | 0.6% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | @ Cleveland Browns | -2.5 | 55.1% | 54.8% | 15.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.5 | 55.1% | 52.2% | 0.4% |
| Houston Texans | vs Dallas Cowboys | -2.5 | 55.1% | 52.2% | 0.3% |
| New Orleans Saints | vs Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 | 55.1% | 46.2% | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | @ Philadelphia Eagles | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.9% | 0.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.7% | 0.6% |
| Washington Commanders | vs Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | 51.7% | 50.4% | 1.4% |
| Indianapolis Colts | @ Washington Commanders | +1.5 | 48.3% | 49.6% | 0.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | vs Los Angeles Rams | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.1% | 0.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs Green Bay Packers | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.3% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | +2.5 | 44.9% | 45.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | @ Cincinnati Bengals | +2.5 | 44.9% | 47.8% | 0.6% |
| Dallas Cowboys | @ Houston Texans | +2.5 | 44.9% | 47.8% | 0.7% |
| Atlanta Falcons | @ New Orleans Saints | +2.5 | 44.9% | 53.8% | 0.7% |
| Denver Broncos | @ San Francisco 49ers | +2.5 | 43.7% | 47.3% | 0.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | vs Detroit Lions | +3 | 40.7% | 41.7% | 0.1% |
| New England Patriots | @ Buffalo Bills | +3 | 40% | 44.6% | 0.1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | @ Seattle Seahawks | +3 | 39.1% | 41.8% | 0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | vs Kansas City Chiefs | +5.5 | 31.5% | 30.3% | 0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | @ New York Giants | +7 | 26.6% | 25.3% | 0.6% |
| Tennessee Titans | @ Baltimore Ravens | +8.5 | 23.4% | 25.9% | 0% |
| Miami Dolphins | @ Minnesota Vikings | +7.5 | 23.4% | 27.6% | 0% |
| New York Jets | @ Chicago Bears | +8.5 | 21.8% | 25.1% | 0% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.