Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Data from Survivor Board grid
Board data as of 2026-10-26 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Everyone this week
Safest picks
- 1BALBaltimore Ravens85.2% win, vs Tennessee Titans -11.5
- 2MINMinnesota Vikings80.8% win, vs Miami Dolphins -10
- 3BUFBuffalo Bills74.4% win, vs New England Patriots -7
- 4SEASeattle Seahawks74.4% win, vs Los Angeles Chargers -7
- 5INDIndianapolis Colts66.9% win, @ Washington Commanders -4.5
Most picked by the public
- 1BALBaltimore Ravens40.1% of entries
- 2MINMinnesota Vikings37.4% of entries
- 3BUFBuffalo Bills5.1% of entries
Contrarian value
- 1BUFBuffalo Bills74.4% win, only 5.1% picked
- 2SEASeattle Seahawks74.4% win, only 3.9% picked
- 3INDIndianapolis Colts66.9% win, only 0.8% picked
All 32 teams, strongest first. Scroll sideways on a phone.
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | vs Tennessee Titans | -11.5 | 85.2% | 83.3% | 40.1% | W |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | vs Miami Dolphins | -10 | 80.8% | 80.1% | 37.4% | W |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | vs New England Patriots | -7 | 74.4% | 75.1% | 5.1% | L |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | vs Los Angeles Chargers | -7 | 74.4% | 73.9% | 3.9% | W |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | @ Washington Commanders | -4.5 | 66.9% | 71.9% | 0.8% | W |
| DET Detroit Lions | @ Carolina Panthers | -4.5 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 1.2% | L |
| KC Kansas City Chiefs | @ Las Vegas Raiders | -4.5 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 0.9% | W |
| LA Los Angeles Rams | @ Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 | 63.7% | 64.4% | 0.3% | W |
| CHI Chicago Bears | vs New York Jets | -3.5 | 63.1% | 59.8% | 3.9% | W |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | vs Denver Broncos | -3 | 60% | 56.5% | 0.3% | W |
| HOU Houston Texans | vs Dallas Cowboys | -3 | 58.3% | 55.7% | 0.1% | L |
| GB Green Bay Packers | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3 | 58.3% | 58.4% | 1.4% | W |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | @ Cleveland Browns | -2.5 | 57.2% | 52.1% | 1.2% | L |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.5 | 57.2% | 51.9% | 0.2% | L |
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | @ New York Giants | -2.5 | 55.1% | 56.6% | 0.4% | L |
| NO New Orleans Saints | vs Atlanta Falcons | -1.5 | 51.7% | 43.6% | 0.7% | L |
| Underdogs this week | ||||||
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | @ New Orleans Saints | +1.5 | 48.3% | 56.4% | 0.2% | W |
| NYG New York Giants | vs Arizona Cardinals | +2.5 | 44.9% | 43.4% | 0.3% | W |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | +2.5 | 42.8% | 47.9% | 0.2% | W |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | @ Cincinnati Bengals | +2.5 | 42.8% | 48.1% | 0.1% | W |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | @ Houston Texans | +3 | 41.7% | 44.3% | 0.3% | W |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs Green Bay Packers | +3 | 41.7% | 41.6% | 0% | L |
| DEN Denver Broncos | @ San Francisco 49ers | +3 | 40% | 43.5% | 0% | L |
| NYJ New York Jets | @ Chicago Bears | +3.5 | 36.9% | 40.2% | 0% | L |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | vs Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 36.3% | 35.6% | 0.1% | L |
| CAR Carolina Panthers | vs Detroit Lions | +4.5 | 33.6% | 33.3% | 0% | W |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | vs Kansas City Chiefs | +4.5 | 33.6% | 33.3% | 0% | L |
| WAS Washington Commanders | vs Indianapolis Colts | +4.5 | 33.1% | 28.1% | 0.1% | L |
| NE New England Patriots | @ Buffalo Bills | +7 | 25.6% | 24.9% | 0% | W |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | @ Seattle Seahawks | +7 | 25.6% | 26.1% | 0% | L |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | @ Minnesota Vikings | +10 | 19.2% | 19.9% | 0% | L |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | @ Baltimore Ravens | +11.5 | 14.8% | 16.7% | 0% | L |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.