Backtest
Two things. How the real Strategy book did, year by year, when we locked each week from that week’s lines. And whether the line rules the engine uses actually show up in the results.
The book
Aggressive rebuy weeks 1–4, leftovers only, same max-share cap. A finisher lasted through week 17 (2010–2020) or 18 (2021–2025). Sixteen seasons.
What we’d run: 10 tickets, no saved teams, 50% on any one side. That reached the last week in 7 years. Going uncapped finished more tickets when it hit — 4 in 2014, 3 in 2025 — and died in week 5 in 2011, 2017, and 2024. Three saved teams finished last almost every time. They sat on the teams you needed to play.
10 tickets — every saved-team / cap mix
Bar is years someone finished. The number on the right is how many tickets finished in all.
Finishers by year
Blank is a wipe. 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2024 killed almost everything. 2024 uncapped put all 10 on a week-5 loser.
Three tickets finished twice in 16 years. Twelve uncapped is the raw high (7 years, 16 finishers) and picks up 2018 and 2020. That’s another $100 for two old seasons, and you still die in 2021, 2023, and 2024.
Insights
Favorites only. Gap is actual win rate minus the posted number. These rules were found on 2010–2025, so this is why they exist — not a clean holdout. The 2020–2025 column is the later look.
One ticket
Ignore the book. Each year, take the unused team with the best score that week. Alive after week k means the first k picks all won. Nobody finished.
This week’s chalk
Forget uniqueness. Just take the single highest side every week. Hitting more weeks is not the same as lasting longer.
Calibration
Favorite sides, 2014–2025. The posted number is a hair sharper than the engine. The live home/away table looks better because it has already seen these games.