Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes San Francisco 49ers the strongest Week 3 survivor pick at 83.7% to win (at home against the Arizona Cardinals, -11.5). Kansas City Chiefs is next at 78.2%. The public's favorite is Detroit Lions, carrying 24.3% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Seattle Seahawks wins 63.1% of the time but is picked by only 2.2% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- San Francisco 49ers — 83.7% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -11.5
- Kansas City Chiefs — 78.2% win, @ Miami Dolphins -7.5
- Detroit Lions — 77.7% win, vs New York Jets -9.5
- Green Bay Packers — 75.7% win, vs Atlanta Falcons -7.5
- Seattle Seahawks — 63.1% win, @ Washington Commanders -3.5
Most picked by the public
- Detroit Lions — 24.3% of entries
- Kansas City Chiefs — 23.8% of entries
- San Francisco 49ers — 17.4% of entries
Contrarian value
- Seattle Seahawks — 63.1% win, only 2.2% picked
- New Orleans Saints — 62.2% win, only 2.3% picked
- New York Giants — 60% win, only 3.7% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | vs Arizona Cardinals | -11.5 | 83.7% | 85.4% | 17.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | @ Miami Dolphins | -7.5 | 78.2% | 73.9% | 23.8% |
| Detroit Lions | vs New York Jets | -9.5 | 77.7% | 77.2% | 24.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | vs Atlanta Falcons | -7.5 | 75.7% | 73.2% | 13.7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | @ Washington Commanders | -3.5 | 63.1% | 65.3% | 2.2% |
| New Orleans Saints | vs Las Vegas Raiders | -3.5 | 62.2% | 60.7% | 2.3% |
| New York Giants | vs Tennessee Titans | -3 | 60% | 57.8% | 3.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | vs Los Angeles Chargers | -3 | 59.3% | 56.3% | 0.4% |
| Los Angeles Rams | @ Denver Broncos | -3 | 58.3% | 57.9% | 0.3% |
| Baltimore Ravens | @ Dallas Cowboys | -2.5 | 55.1% | 60.9% | 0.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | @ Cleveland Browns | -1.5 | 53.2% | 55.9% | 5.4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 | 53.2% | 55.9% | 0.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs Minnesota Vikings | -1.5 | 53.2% | 51.1% | 0.3% |
| Houston Texans | @ Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | 52.6% | 55.6% | 1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | vs New England Patriots | -1.5 | 51.7% | 50.4% | 0.1% |
| Chicago Bears | vs Philadelphia Eagles | -1.5 | 51.7% | 46.7% | 0.1% |
| New England Patriots | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | +1.5 | 48.3% | 49.6% | 0.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | @ Chicago Bears | +1.5 | 48.3% | 53.3% | 0.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | vs Houston Texans | +1.5 | 47.4% | 44.4% | 0.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | vs Carolina Panthers | +1.5 | 46.8% | 44.1% | 0.7% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | vs Cincinnati Bengals | +1.5 | 46.8% | 44.1% | 0.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1.5 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | vs Baltimore Ravens | +2.5 | 44.9% | 39.1% | 0.1% |
| Denver Broncos | vs Los Angeles Rams | +3 | 41.7% | 42.1% | 0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | @ Buffalo Bills | +3 | 40.7% | 43.7% | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | @ New York Giants | +3 | 40% | 42.2% | 0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | @ New Orleans Saints | +3.5 | 37.8% | 39.3% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | vs Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 | 36.9% | 34.7% | 0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | @ Green Bay Packers | +7.5 | 24.3% | 26.8% | 0.4% |
| New York Jets | @ Detroit Lions | +9.5 | 22.3% | 22.8% | 0% |
| Miami Dolphins | vs Kansas City Chiefs | +7.5 | 21.8% | 26.1% | 0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | @ San Francisco 49ers | +11.5 | 16.3% | 14.6% | 0% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.