Week 16 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 16 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes New England Patriots the strongest Week 16 survivor pick at 79.8% to win (on the road against the New York Jets, -6.5). Baltimore Ravens is next at 77.7%. The public's favorite is Baltimore Ravens, carrying 26.5% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, New England Patriots wins 79.8% of the time but is picked by only 7.4% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- New England Patriots — 79.8% win, @ New York Jets -6.5
- Baltimore Ravens — 77.7% win, vs Cleveland Browns -10
- Los Angeles Chargers — 75.7% win, @ Miami Dolphins -7
- New Orleans Saints — 68.1% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -5.5
- Detroit Lions — 64.5% win, vs New York Giants -4.5
Most picked by the public
- Baltimore Ravens — 26.5% of entries
- New Orleans Saints — 11.8% of entries
- Los Angeles Chargers — 11.6% of entries
Contrarian value
- New England Patriots — 79.8% win, only 7.4% picked
- Detroit Lions — 64.5% win, only 2.2% picked
- Dallas Cowboys — 59.3% win, only 1% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | @ New York Jets | -6.5 | — | 79.8% | 7.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | vs Cleveland Browns | -10 | 77.7% | 82.7% | 26.5% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | @ Miami Dolphins | -7 | 75.7% | 82.4% | 11.6% |
| New Orleans Saints | vs Arizona Cardinals | -5.5 | 68.1% | 64.1% | 11.8% |
| Detroit Lions | vs New York Giants | -4.5 | 64.5% | 64.1% | 2.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | vs Carolina Panthers | -3.5 | 63.1% | 62.3% | 8.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | -3 | 59.3% | 58.7% | 1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | vs San Francisco 49ers | -3 | — | 58.2% | 0.6% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | vs Houston Texans | -2.5 | 55.1% | 54.7% | 5.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | vs Washington Commanders | -2.5 | 55.1% | 53.5% | 2.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | @ Denver Broncos | -1.5 | 54.3% | 57.7% | 1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Atlanta Falcons | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.2% | 10.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | @ Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | 53.2% | 57.2% | 0.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | vs Tennessee Titans | -1.5 | 53.2% | 52.3% | 1.8% |
| Los Angeles Rams | @ Seattle Seahawks | +1.5 | 52% | 50% | 0.7% |
| Chicago Bears | vs Green Bay Packers | -1.5 | 51.7% | 51.6% | 1.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | @ Chicago Bears | +1.5 | 48.3% | 48.4% | 0.8% |
| Seattle Seahawks | vs Los Angeles Rams | -1.5 | 48% | 50% | 0.3% |
| Atlanta Falcons | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.8% | 0.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | vs Cincinnati Bengals | +1.5 | 46.8% | 42.8% | 0.7% |
| Tennessee Titans | @ Las Vegas Raiders | +1.5 | 46.8% | 47.7% | 0.7% |
| Denver Broncos | vs Buffalo Bills | +1.5 | 45.7% | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| Houston Texans | @ Philadelphia Eagles | +2.5 | 44.9% | 45.3% | 0.8% |
| Washington Commanders | @ Minnesota Vikings | +2.5 | 44.9% | 46.5% | 0.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | @ Kansas City Chiefs | +3 | — | 41.8% | 0.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | @ Dallas Cowboys | +3 | 40.7% | 41.3% | 0.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | +3.5 | 36.9% | 37.7% | 0.3% |
| New York Giants | @ Detroit Lions | +4.5 | 35.5% | 35.9% | 0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | @ New Orleans Saints | +5.5 | 31.9% | 35.9% | 0.7% |
| Miami Dolphins | vs Los Angeles Chargers | +7 | 24.3% | 17.6% | 0% |
| Cleveland Browns | @ Baltimore Ravens | +10 | 22.3% | 17.3% | 0% |
| New York Jets | vs New England Patriots | +6.5 | — | 20.2% | 0% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.