Week 11 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 11 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes Buffalo Bills the strongest Week 11 survivor pick at 83.2% to win (at home against the Miami Dolphins, -11.5). Kansas City Chiefs is next at 82.2%. The public's favorite is Kansas City Chiefs, carrying 23.9% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Denver Broncos wins 74.1% of the time but is picked by only 5% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- Buffalo Bills — 83.2% win, vs Miami Dolphins -11.5
- Kansas City Chiefs — 82.2% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -11.5
- Los Angeles Chargers — 77.7% win, vs New York Jets -9.5
- Denver Broncos — 74.1% win, vs Las Vegas Raiders -7.5
- Chicago Bears — 71.4% win, vs New Orleans Saints -6.5
Most picked by the public
- Kansas City Chiefs — 23.9% of entries
- Los Angeles Chargers — 17.5% of entries
- Buffalo Bills — 15.3% of entries
Contrarian value
- Denver Broncos — 74.1% win, only 5% picked
- Chicago Bears — 71.4% win, only 6.9% picked
- Philadelphia Eagles — 67.5% win, only 1.4% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | vs Miami Dolphins | -11.5 | 83.2% | 86.4% | 15.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | vs Arizona Cardinals | -11.5 | 82.2% | 84.5% | 23.9% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | vs New York Jets | -9.5 | 77.7% | 79.6% | 17.5% |
| Denver Broncos | vs Las Vegas Raiders | -7.5 | 74.1% | 76.8% | 5% |
| Chicago Bears | vs New Orleans Saints | -6.5 | 71.4% | 78.5% | 6.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | vs Tennessee Titans | -6.5 | 71% | 75.3% | 8.7% |
| Houston Texans | vs Indianapolis Colts | -5.5 | 67.5% | 65.1% | 9.7% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.5 | 67.5% | 61.3% | 1.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | @ Carolina Panthers | -4.5 | 65.7% | 68.8% | 2.9% |
| Detroit Lions | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.5 | 65.7% | 68.3% | 1.3% |
| San Francisco 49ers | vs Minnesota Vikings | -3.5 | 65.2% | 68.3% | 1.4% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | @ New York Giants | -1.5 | 52.6% | 56.9% | 2.2% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | @ Washington Commanders | -1.5 | 52.6% | 58.6% | 0.8% |
| New York Giants | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | +1.5 | 47.4% | 43.1% | 0.2% |
| Washington Commanders | vs Cincinnati Bengals | +1.5 | 47.4% | 41.4% | 0.1% |
| Minnesota Vikings | @ San Francisco 49ers | +3.5 | 34.8% | 31.7% | 0.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | vs Baltimore Ravens | +4.5 | 34.3% | 31.2% | 0.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Detroit Lions | +4.5 | 34.3% | 31.7% | 0.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | @ Houston Texans | +5.5 | 32.5% | 34.9% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | @ Philadelphia Eagles | +5.5 | 32.5% | 38.7% | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | @ Dallas Cowboys | +6.5 | 29% | 24.7% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | @ Chicago Bears | +6.5 | 28.6% | 21.5% | 0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | @ Denver Broncos | +7.5 | 25.9% | 23.2% | 0% |
| New York Jets | @ Los Angeles Chargers | +9.5 | 22.3% | 20.4% | 0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | @ Kansas City Chiefs | +11.5 | 17.8% | 15.5% | 0.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | @ Buffalo Bills | +11.5 | 16.8% | 13.6% | 0.5% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.