Week 18 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 18 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes New England Patriots the strongest Week 18 survivor pick at 90.8% to win (at home against the Miami Dolphins, -10.5). San Francisco 49ers is next at 79.9%. The public's favorite is Houston Texans, carrying 21.8% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Buffalo Bills wins 79.1% of the time but is picked by only 6% of entries.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- New England Patriots — 90.8% win, vs Miami Dolphins -10.5
- San Francisco 49ers — 79.9% win, @ Arizona Cardinals -8.5
- Buffalo Bills — 79.1% win, vs New York Jets -10
- Kansas City Chiefs — 77.2% win, vs Las Vegas Raiders -8.5
- Cincinnati Bengals — 75.1% win, vs Cleveland Browns -7.5
Most picked by the public
- Houston Texans — 21.8% of entries
- Carolina Panthers — 11.9% of entries
- New England Patriots — 11.4% of entries
Contrarian value
- Buffalo Bills — 79.1% win, only 6% picked
- Kansas City Chiefs — 77.2% win, only 6.5% picked
- Baltimore Ravens — 66.9% win, only 0.9% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | vs Miami Dolphins | -10.5 | — | 90.8% | 11.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | @ Arizona Cardinals | -8.5 | — | 79.9% | 10.5% |
| Buffalo Bills | vs New York Jets | -10 | 79.1% | 85% | 6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | vs Las Vegas Raiders | -8.5 | 77.2% | 78.7% | 6.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | vs Cleveland Browns | -7.5 | 75.1% | 74.8% | 8.7% |
| Houston Texans | vs Tennessee Titans | -7 | 71.8% | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| Baltimore Ravens | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.5 | 66.9% | 64.1% | 0.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | @ New York Giants | -3 | 59.3% | 60.3% | 3.9% |
| Los Angeles Rams | vs Seattle Seahawks | -3 | — | 59% | 0.7% |
| Carolina Panthers | vs Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 | 55.1% | 54.2% | 11.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | vs Detroit Lions | -2.5 | 55.1% | 54.2% | 0.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ New Orleans Saints | -1.5 | 53.2% | 58.9% | 4.8% |
| Denver Broncos | vs Los Angeles Chargers | -1.5 | 52.6% | 53.8% | 0.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | vs Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.5 | 52.6% | 53.8% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | vs Chicago Bears | -1.5 | 52.6% | 53.8% | 1% |
| Dallas Cowboys | @ Washington Commanders | -1.5 | 52.6% | 58.6% | 2.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | @ Denver Broncos | +1.5 | 47.4% | 46.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | @ Indianapolis Colts | +1.5 | 47.4% | 46.2% | 1.2% |
| Chicago Bears | @ Minnesota Vikings | +1.5 | 47.4% | 46.2% | 1.9% |
| Washington Commanders | vs Dallas Cowboys | +1.5 | 47.4% | 41.4% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1.5 | 46.8% | 41.1% | 0.1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | @ Carolina Panthers | +2.5 | 44.9% | 45.8% | 1% |
| Detroit Lions | @ Green Bay Packers | +2.5 | 44.9% | 45.8% | 0.3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | @ Los Angeles Rams | +3 | — | 41% | 0.1% |
| New York Giants | vs Philadelphia Eagles | +3 | 40.7% | 39.7% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | @ Baltimore Ravens | +5.5 | 33.1% | 35.9% | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | @ Houston Texans | +7 | 28.2% | 21.8% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | @ Cincinnati Bengals | +7.5 | 24.9% | 25.2% | 0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | @ Kansas City Chiefs | +8.5 | 22.8% | 21.3% | 0.2% |
| New York Jets | @ Buffalo Bills | +10 | 20.9% | 15% | 0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | vs San Francisco 49ers | +8.5 | — | 20.1% | 0.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | @ New England Patriots | +10.5 | — | 9.2% | 0.1% |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.