Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Win odds, public pick percentages, and spreads for every team playing in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, from the free Survivor Board grid.
The board makes Los Angeles Chargers the strongest Week 1 survivor pick at 79.9% to win (at home against the Arizona Cardinals, -9.5). Jacksonville Jaguars is next at 77.7%. The public agrees: Los Angeles Chargers carries 28.8% of survivor entries across Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. For leverage, Pittsburgh Steelers wins 69.8% of the time but is picked by only 4.7% of entries. 2 of 16 games are final; results are marked in the table.
Board data as of 2026-09-11 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Safest picks
- Los Angeles Chargers — 79.9% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -9.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars — 77.7% win, vs Cleveland Browns -8.5
- Detroit Lions — 73.3% win, vs New Orleans Saints -7
- Pittsburgh Steelers — 69.8% win, vs Atlanta Falcons -6
- Philadelphia Eagles — 68.4% win, vs Washington Commanders -5.5
Most picked by the public
- Los Angeles Chargers — 28.8% of entries
- Jacksonville Jaguars — 24% of entries
- Detroit Lions — 14% of entries
Contrarian value
- Pittsburgh Steelers — 69.8% win, only 4.7% picked
- Philadelphia Eagles — 68.4% win, only 3.3% picked
- Los Angeles Rams — 65.7% win, only 1.9% picked
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | vs Arizona Cardinals | -9.5 | 79.9% | 79.4% | 28.8% | — |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | vs Cleveland Browns | -8.5 | 77.7% | 74.6% | 24% | — |
| Detroit Lions | vs New Orleans Saints | -7 | 73.3% | 74.6% | 14% | — |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | vs Atlanta Falcons | -6 | 69.8% | 67.6% | 4.7% | — |
| Philadelphia Eagles | vs Washington Commanders | -5.5 | 68.4% | 63% | 3.3% | — |
| Los Angeles Rams | vs San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 | 65.7% | 68.5% | 1.9% | L |
| Cincinnati Bengals | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 | 64.5% | 61.7% | 1.1% | — |
| Baltimore Ravens | @ Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 | 61.4% | 62.6% | 1.4% | — |
| Chicago Bears | @ Carolina Panthers | -3 | 60.6% | 58.9% | 2.9% | — |
| Las Vegas Raiders | vs Miami Dolphins | -3 | 60.3% | 57.9% | 4.7% | — |
| Seattle Seahawks | vs New England Patriots | -3 | 60% | 57.8% | 2.5% | W |
| Dallas Cowboys | @ New York Giants | -3 | 59.3% | 56% | 1.5% | — |
| Kansas City Chiefs | vs Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 56.7% | 48.1% | 0.4% | — |
| Minnesota Vikings | vs Green Bay Packers | -1.5 | 53.3% | 51.1% | 0.2% | — |
| Buffalo Bills | @ Houston Texans | -1.5 | 52.8% | 55.7% | 1.1% | — |
| Tennessee Titans | vs New York Jets | -1.5 | 52.4% | 50.7% | 2.9% | — |
| New York Jets | @ Tennessee Titans | +1.5 | 47.6% | 49.3% | 0.8% | — |
| Houston Texans | vs Buffalo Bills | +1.5 | 47.2% | 44.3% | 0.2% | — |
| Green Bay Packers | @ Minnesota Vikings | +1.5 | 46.7% | 48.9% | 0.4% | — |
| Denver Broncos | @ Kansas City Chiefs | +2.5 | 43.3% | 51.9% | 0.6% | — |
| New York Giants | vs Dallas Cowboys | +3 | 40.7% | 44% | 0.2% | — |
| New England Patriots | @ Seattle Seahawks | +3 | 40% | 42.2% | 0.4% | L |
| Miami Dolphins | @ Las Vegas Raiders | +3 | 39.7% | 42.1% | 0.2% | — |
| Carolina Panthers | vs Chicago Bears | +3 | 39.4% | 41.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Indianapolis Colts | vs Baltimore Ravens | +3.5 | 38.6% | 37.4% | 0.1% | — |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Cincinnati Bengals | +3.5 | 35.5% | 38.3% | 0.2% | — |
| San Francisco 49ers | @ Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 34.3% | 31.5% | 0.3% | W |
| Washington Commanders | @ Philadelphia Eagles | +5.5 | 31.6% | 37% | 0.1% | — |
| Atlanta Falcons | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | +6 | 30.2% | 32.4% | 0.2% | — |
| New Orleans Saints | @ Detroit Lions | +7 | 26.7% | 25.4% | 0.1% | — |
| Cleveland Browns | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | +8.5 | 22.3% | 25.4% | 0.1% | — |
| Arizona Cardinals | @ Los Angeles Chargers | +9.5 | 20.1% | 20.6% | 0.1% | — |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.