Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks — 2026
Data from Survivor Board grid
Board data as of 2026-10-26 04:00 PM PDT. Updated automatically from live sportsbook lines.
Everyone this week
Safest picks
- 1JAXJacksonville Jaguars79.1% win, vs Cleveland Browns -8.5
- 2LACLos Angeles Chargers78.7% win, vs Arizona Cardinals -8.5
- 3DETDetroit Lions73.4% win, vs New Orleans Saints -7
- 4PITPittsburgh Steelers71.8% win, vs Atlanta Falcons -6.5
- 5PHIPhiladelphia Eagles68.1% win, vs Washington Commanders -6
Most picked by the public
- 1LACLos Angeles Chargers27.5% of entries
- 2JAXJacksonville Jaguars23.3% of entries
- 3DETDetroit Lions13.2% of entries
Contrarian value
- 1PITPittsburgh Steelers71.8% win, only 7.2% picked
- 2PHIPhiladelphia Eagles68.1% win, only 3.3% picked
- 3LALos Angeles Rams65.7% win, only 1.7% picked
All 32 teams, strongest first. Scroll sideways on a phone.
| Team | Matchup | Spread | Win % (Vegas) | Win % (Model) | Pick % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | vs Cleveland Browns | -8.5 | 79.1% | 74% | 23.3% | W |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | vs Arizona Cardinals | -8.5 | 78.7% | 73.8% | 27.5% | L |
| DET Detroit Lions | vs New Orleans Saints | -7 | 73.4% | 73.4% | 13.2% | W |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | vs Atlanta Falcons | -6.5 | 71.8% | 73.2% | 7.2% | W |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | vs Washington Commanders | -6 | 68.1% | 65.5% | 3.3% | W |
| LA Los Angeles Rams | vs San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 | 65.7% | 67.2% | 1.7% | L |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 | 64.5% | 60.5% | 1.1% | W |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | vs Miami Dolphins | -3 | 60.4% | 56.7% | 4.6% | W |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | vs New England Patriots | -3 | 60% | 56.5% | 1.9% | W |
| CHI Chicago Bears | @ Carolina Panthers | -3 | 60% | 57.4% | 2.8% | W |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | @ New York Giants | -3 | 60% | 52.7% | 1.8% | L |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | @ Indianapolis Colts | -3 | 59.3% | 57.1% | 1.4% | W |
| KC Kansas City Chiefs | vs Denver Broncos | -2.5 | 54.3% | 45.1% | 0.9% | W |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | vs Green Bay Packers | -1.5 | 53.2% | 49.8% | 0.2% | W |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | vs New York Jets | -1.5 | 51.7% | 49.1% | 2.4% | L |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | @ Houston Texans | -1.5 | 50.4% | 53.4% | 1% | W |
| Underdogs this week | ||||||
| HOU Houston Texans | vs Buffalo Bills | +1.5 | 49.6% | 46.6% | 0.2% | L |
| NYJ New York Jets | @ Tennessee Titans | +1.5 | 48.3% | 50.9% | 0.8% | W |
| GB Green Bay Packers | @ Minnesota Vikings | +1.5 | 46.8% | 50.2% | 0.4% | L |
| DEN Denver Broncos | @ Kansas City Chiefs | +2.5 | 45.7% | 54.9% | 1.1% | L |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | vs Baltimore Ravens | +3 | 40.7% | 42.9% | 0.1% | L |
| NE New England Patriots | @ Seattle Seahawks | +3 | 40% | 43.5% | 0.4% | L |
| CAR Carolina Panthers | vs Chicago Bears | +3 | 40% | 42.6% | 0.1% | L |
| NYG New York Giants | vs Dallas Cowboys | +3 | 40% | 47.3% | 0.3% | W |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | @ Las Vegas Raiders | +3 | 39.6% | 43.3% | 0.3% | L |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Cincinnati Bengals | +3.5 | 35.5% | 39.5% | 0.2% | L |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | @ Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 34.3% | 32.8% | 0.2% | W |
| WAS Washington Commanders | @ Philadelphia Eagles | +6 | 31.9% | 34.5% | 0.1% | L |
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | +6.5 | 28.2% | 26.8% | 0.1% | L |
| NO New Orleans Saints | @ Detroit Lions | +7 | 26.6% | 26.6% | 0.1% | L |
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | @ Los Angeles Chargers | +8.5 | 21.3% | 26.2% | 0.1% | W |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | +8.5 | 20.9% | 26% | 0.1% | L |
Win % (Vegas) is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus. Win % (Model) blends the moneyline with empirical results from every NFL spread since 2010. Pick % averages public survivor pick share reported by Yahoo, ESPN, and USA Football Pools. Use the interactive grid to compare models, or the season planner to optimize full-season paths with rebuy weeks, double-pick weeks, and multiple entries across pools.