Guides

Survivor pool strategy

A good survivor pick balances three things: how likely the team is to win this week, how much that team is worth to you later in the season, and how many other entries are riding on it. Pool size and the number of entries you hold change how much weight each one gets. This guide shows each idea with live numbers from the 2026 board and results from our 2014 to 2025 backtest.

1. Start with the chance to win

Everything starts with surviving the week. In Week 4 the board's strongest favorite is the Baltimore Ravens at 83.2%. Even the best pick of the week loses 16.8% of the time, which is why no single number tells you what to do.

Week 4 board as of 2026-10-04 07:20 AM PDT. Win chance is the AI Assisted model, the board's default. Picked by is the average public pick share. Easy weeks left counts later weeks where the team is favored and at least 70% to win.

2. Count what each team is worth later

You can use each team only once. A team with one strong week left in the season costs you little to use now. A team with several is worth more later, so using it this week spends something you will want back.

This week shows it. The Minnesota Vikings (80.5%) have 1 easy week left after Week 4. The Baltimore Ravens (83.2%) have 4. The win chances are close, and the cost of using each one is not.

The teams with the most easy weeks left after Week 4:

Treat those future weeks as a plan, not a promise. On our archived boards, a team favored by three or more points two weeks early was still favored by three or more at kickoff 88.3% of the time. Ten weeks early it was 80.9%.

3. Know where the crowd is

When a heavily picked favorite loses, a large part of the field goes out with it, and every entry that avoided it moves up. In Week 4 the most picked team is the Baltimore Ravens at 39.9% of public entries, with a 83.2% win chance. In a big pool, a slightly weaker team that few people are on can be worth more than the chalk. A small pool has fewer entries to gain from, so the safer team usually matters more there.

4. Pool size changes the plan

A late-season stud is only worth saving if your pool is likely to still be going when its week comes. In our 12-season replay, this is how often a pool was still contested by week:

Telling our planner the pool size raised its cash rate by 25% in a 25-entrant pool and 10% in a 50-entrant pool, and made little difference at 200 or more. Small pools reward winning now. Large pools reward planning ahead.

5. More entries only help on different teams

In the backtest, a single ticket reached the final week in 0 of 12 seasons. Ten tickets, each on a different team, had one still alive at the end in 4 of 12. That book also bought about 13.1 rebuys along the way, with rebuys open through week 4.

The same 10 tickets did much worse when they were allowed to pile onto the same team. Spread one per team they reached the final week in 4 of 12 seasons. With all 10 on one team, 0 of 12. Ten copies of one pick behave like one pick.

Backtest: walk-forward, 2014 to 2025, scored on seasons the model had not seen. Full tables and method on the Methodology page.